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Confidence Score

A performance-derived reliability score for channels and tokens, scaled from 1 to 100.


#What It Measures

A heuristic score from 1 to 100 that combines a channel's win rate (70% weight), average ROI (30% weight), and sample size into a single reliability signal.

#How It’s Calculated

Win rate is scaled to 0–1. ROI is passed through a smooth curve (tanh with scale 80) so extreme values don't dominate. The weighted result is then dampened toward 50 based on how many resolved calls the channel has.

#Reliability Damping

With fewer than 20 resolved calls (wins + losses), the score is pulled closer to 50 (neutral). At 20+ resolved calls the channel gets its full computed score. This prevents channels with a few lucky wins from appearing highly rated.

#Score Ranges

50 = neutral or insufficient data. 60–75 = decent performance. 75–90 = strong performance. 90+ = extremely strong with sufficient data. Below 50 = poor historical performance.

#Token Confidence Score

The score shown on a token in the feed is the average of the confidence scores of all unique channels that called it. Visible to Sovereign and Scarecrow subscribers.